02 June, 2015

2015 Number of Win Predictions (through May)

These predictions are based on my own "secret sauce" method, which I definitely think can be improved. I've tested these on previous years and I set the nominal coverage at 95% (meaning it should get it right 95% of the time), but based on tests of previous seasons the actual coverage at this point in the season is about 93%.

\begin{array} {c c c} 
Team  & Lower  & Upper \\ \hline
         ATL  &  68   &  92 \\
         ARI    &67   &  93 \\
         BAL    &66   &  91 \\
         BOS   & 62   &  87\\
         CHC   & 71   &  95\\
         CHW   & 64  &  89\\
         CIN    &64   &  89\\
         CLE   & 68   &  92\\
         COL   & 65   &  91\\
        DET    &71    & 96\\
        HOU   & 76   & 101\\
        KCR   & 77   & 102\\
        LAA   & 71    & 95\\
        LAD   & 77   & 102\\
        MIA   & 62    & 87\\
        MIL   & 56    & 81\\
        MIN   & 74   & 100\\
        NYM  &  72    & 96\\
        NYY   & 70    & 95\\
        OAK   & 62    & 87\\
        PHI    &56    & 82\\
        PIT   & 72    & 97\\
        SDP   & 67    & 91\\
        SEA   & 67    & 91\\
        SFG   & 74   & 98\\
        STL   & 81   & 106\\
        TBR   & 71   &  97\\
        TEX   & 69   &  93\\
        TOR   & 67    & 91\\
        WSN   & 73 &    97\\ \hline
\end{array}

'It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.' - Yogi Berra

(Probably not something he actually said, but a great quote nonetheless)

No comments:

Post a Comment