These predictions are based on my own method (which can be improved). I set the nominal coverage at 95%
(meaning the way I calculated it the intervals should get it right
95% of the time), and I think by this point in the season the actual coverage should be close to that.
Intervals are inclusive. All win totals assume a 162 game schedule.
\begin{array} {c c c c}
\textrm{Team} & \textrm{Lower} & \textrm{Mean} & \textrm{Upper} & \textrm{True Win Total} \\ \hline
ATL & 61 & 66.56 & 72 & 65.57 \\
ARI & 73 & 78.98 & 85 & 83.48 \\
BAL & 72 & 77.94 & 84 & 83.3 \\
BOS & 70 & 75.88 & 82 & 77.71 \\
CHC & 85 & 90.58 & 96 & 83.91 \\
CHW & 70 & 76.24 & 82 & 74.78 \\
CIN & 63 & 68.64 & 75 & 74.14 \\
CLE & 74 & 80.20 & 86 & 82.03 \\
COL & 61 & 67.29 & 73 & 70.14 \\
DET & 69 & 74.75 & 81 & 74.66 \\
HOU & 84 & 89.99 & 96 & 91.79 \\
KCR & 92 & 97.84 & 104 & 90.34 \\
LAA & 74 & 79.95 & 86 & 78.16 \\
LAD & 84 & 90.31 & 96 & 87.66 \\
MIA & 61 & 66.79 & 73 & 74.49 \\
MIL & 64 & 69.71 & 76 & 74.48 \\
MIN & 77 & 82.69 & 89 & 79.41 \\
NYM & 84 & 89.67 & 95 & 87.19 \\
NYY & 83 & 89.34 & 95 & 87.76 \\
OAK & 68 & 73.33 & 79 & 82.77 \\
PHI & 58 & 63.87 & 70 & 64.11 \\
PIT & 91 & 97.21 & 103 & 89.43 \\
SDP & 73 & 78.54 & 84 & 75.97 \\
SEA & 69 & 74.32 & 80 & 71.95 \\
SFG & 80 & 85.61 & 91 & 86.79 \\
STL & 98 & 103.63 & 109 & 97.33 \\
TBR & 76 & 81.45 & 87 & 80.79 \\
TEX & 78 & 83.60 & 90 & 79.00 \\
TOR & 87 & 92.88 & 98 & 98.67 \\
WSN & 77 & 82.61 & 89 & 84.04 \\ \hline\end{array}
To
explain the difference between "Mean" and "True Win Total" - imagine
flipping a fair coin 10 times. The number of heads you expect is 5 -
this is what I have called "True Win Total," representing my best guess
at the true ability of the team over 162 games. However, if you pause
halfway through and note that in the first 5 flips there were 4 heads,
the predicted total number of heads becomes $4 + 0.5(5) = 6.5$ - this is
what I have called "Mean", representing the expected number of wins
based on true ability over the remaining schedule added to the current
number of wins (at the end of August).
These quantiles are based off of a distribution - I've uploaded a picture of each team's distribution to imgur.
The bars in red are the win total values covered by the 95% interval.
The blue line represents my estimate of the team's "True Win Total"
based on its performance - so if the blue line is lower than the peak,
the team is predicted to finish lucky, and if the blue line is higher
than the peak, the team is predicted to finish unlucky.
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