Probabilaball

A blog for probability and statistics within a baseball framework.

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25 October, 2023

For hitters, cold streaks run colder than hot streaks run hot

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This blog post is just the product of a thought exercise: how much information do you get from a certain number of plate appearances? ...
06 April, 2023

2022 and 2023 Stabilization Points

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Hello everyone! It's been another couple of years, and I'm ready to update stabilization points again. These are my estimated sta...
02 April, 2021

2021 Stabilization Points

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These are my estimated stabilization points for the 2021 MLB season, once again using the maximum likelihood method on the totals that...
21 April, 2019

2019 Stabilization Points

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These are my estimated stabilization points for the 2019 MLB season, once again using the maximum likelihood method on the totals that...
05 September, 2018

2018 Stabilization Points

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So this post is waaaaay late in the 2018 season. I've been busy! But, I'm doing this again since it's pretty easy to do. But...
24 April, 2017

2017 Stabilization Points

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Once again, I recalculated stabilization points for 2017 MLB data, once again using the maximum likelihood method on the totals that I ...
03 September, 2016

2016 Win Total Predictions (Through August 31)

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These predictions are based on my own silly estimator, which I know can be improved with some effort on my part.  There's some ...
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